New Accounting Method For Sources of Uncertainty

Climate scientists — including those of us at OCCRI and CIRC— use global climate models to understand the range of possible futures. Dozens of research groups produce hundreds of simulations, which may differ in their greenhouse-gas emission scenarios as well as their starting conditions for each simulation. Thus, interpretation can be challenging. Translating these simulations…

Connecting Causes and Impacts of Climate Change

Here’s what we know about climate change in a nutshell: Human influence on the climate system is clear Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive…

Temperature Records Occur in Clusters

Studying the details of temperature fluctuations is essential to understanding how both individual organisms and whole ecoregions will adapt under climate change. But many studies could be missing an important nuance. Most studies examining long-term changes in temperature tend to focus on trends in the mean, or average temperature, as well as on the highest…

David Rupp’s first foray into climate modeling began with Pacific Northwest fisheries research. In 2008, Rupp, whose background at the time was hydrology, was working for the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport. He and his fellow researchers were studying how climate was affecting fish survival and salmon spawning in Oregon’s rivers. That’s when he…

Guiding Managers Toward Workable Climate Models

With so many climate models we could possibly use, how do we choose? We get this question often, and it’s no wonder. There are more than 60 global climate model datasets available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s two most recent phases (CMIP3 and CMIP5). But many data users — hydrology and vegetation modelers, natural…